The international break is here, giving Premier League clubs time to take stock of what has been a thrilling start to the 2026-27 season, and Opta to reevaluate their title predictions for the season’s close.We’re only five games in and there are already a number of intriguing storylines developing, not least so-called relegation favourites Hull City’s rampant return to the top flight after nine years away, claiming eight points to sit eighth heading into the break.Enzo Maresca’s start to life in charge of Manchester City couldn’t have gone any better, winning all five games to clinch top spot as the only team with a 100 per cent record.Brighton’s stunning 3-0 defeat of Arsenal at the weekend has left the Premier League champions in second, while Fabian Hurzeler’s side are next in line in third.Only goal difference separates fourth to seventh in Brentford, Leeds, Liverpool and Everton, who each remain unbeaten so far.Meanwhile, Chelsea are 10th with seven points, Michael Carrick’s Manchester United are 12th and Tottenham, despite spending around £302million this summer, sit bottom of the table after collecting just two points. With Opta now giving them a 30 per cent chance of relegation, the outlook is already looking bleak for Roberto De Zerbi’s side.
City’s chances to win the title have increased considerably, closing the gap on Arsenal to 39.8 per cent, with Opta essentially predicting a two-horse raceTo recap, Opta’s supercomputer gave Arsenal a 40.6 per cent chance of retaining their title at the start of the campaign, making them favourites.Manchester City were comfortably second favourites at 19.6 per cent, followed by Liverpool with 9.2 per cent and Manchester United with 6.6 per cent.Interestingly, despite suffering that heavy defeat to the Seagulls at the weekend, Arsenal remain Opta’s favourites to lift the trophy at the end of the season, with that percentage increasing to 43.7 per cent.At the same time, City’s chances have also increased considerably, closing the gap on Arsenal to 39.8 per cent, with Opta essentially predicting a two-horse race.Liverpool are third favourites, but only with 5.7 per cent, that figure dropping slightly from the start of the season.Brighton are now fourth favourites with 4.2 per cent. Brentford are fifth (1.2 per cent), Everton sixth (1.1 per cent) and Chelsea seventh (1.0 per cent).Man United have struggled to put points on the board so far despite leading the Premier League for total shots (113) and touches in the opposition box (182). They have, as a result, fallen from fourth favourites at the beginning of the season to eighth, having just a 0.9 per cent chance of winning the title, the biggest fall of any team.Aston Villa picked up their first win of the season against rock-bottom Spurs but lost three of their opening four matches and have been given just a 0.7 per cent chance of winning the title.Join the discussionShould Spurs fans be furious about their club’s dramatic decline despite massive transfer spending?What’s your view? Opta are giving Spurs a 30 per cent chance of relegation after their poor start to the seasonAnd despite getting off to a strong start, Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea side have now gone three games without a win and are given a 0.95 per cent chance of winning the title.At the other end of the table, Coventry City, despite winning their first game of the season against Nottingham Forest at the weekend, are favourites to go down, with Opta giving them a 45.1 per cent chance of relegation.Next in line for the drop are Alvaro Arbeloa’s Fulham, who have a 42.4 per cent chance of relegation.And finally, Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham are third favourites to fall into the Championship at the end of the season, with the supercomputer having given them a 30 per cent chance of relegation.