Erik ten Hag was on a sun-lounger in Ibiza in the summer of 2024 when word reached him that talks between Manchester United and Thomas Tuchel had broken down, and an Ineos delegation was on its way to Spain to offer him a contract extension.
Events can unfold quickly at a club like United, so news that Andoni Iraola is no longer under consideration for the position of head coach doesn’t necessarily mean Michael Carrick is nailed on to get it.
But it has felt like Carrick’s job to lose for some time now, even before Iraola emerged as a candidate, and he looks destined to be confirmed as United boss on a full-time basis sometime in the coming days or weeks.
There are some reservations inside and outside the club, and that is understandable. Carrick is 44 and his only previous job in management was in the Championship with Middlesbrough.
He does not fit the alpha male mould that drew Sir Jim Ratcliffe to Tuchel two years ago, and would probably have been the United co-owner’s preference this time too.
But Carrick didn’t have to charge around beating his chest as a player, and he doesn’t as a coach either.
Michael Carrick looks destined to be handed the permanent Manchester United job soon
He does not bang his own drum much, but it would feel perverse not to keep him in charge given his achievements since January
He goes about his work in the same calm, understated way he did as one of the most gifted English midfielders of his generation – although those who know him also know not to doubt the depth of his feeling for United or the fact he has a more uncompromising side, as the players found out at Newcastle in March.
What he has done – and this is the important bit – is win games of football. Ten out of 15 of them since taking over in January, beating Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool among others to qualify the Champions League with room to spare.
Let’s not forget that he also won two and drew one of his three games against Arsenal, Chelsea and Villarreal as a caretaker in 2021 before handing over to Ralf Rangnick.
It would feel almost perverse not to keep Carrick in charge now after all he and his backroom staff – led by the hugely experienced Steve Holland – have achieved since arriving in mid-January.
They inherited a club plunged into turmoil by the tortured self-flagellation of Ruben Amorim and his fallout with director of football Jason Wilcox.
From that point on Carrick has galvanised United – its staff, its players and its fans – drawing on his experience of the club over many years.
That is counting heavily in his favour among a club hierarchy who appreciate the unique nature of the environment which has proved too much for so many managers and players down the years. At times we were watching Amorim unravel before our eyes.
Does Carrick fit everyone’s profile of the next great United manager? Maybe not. Had Luis Enrique been available, or one of a number of national team coaches not been tied up at the World Cup until mid-summer, it may have been a different story.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe would likely prefer other names but he can only work with the options available
It’s in Carrick’s interest to distance himself from any comparisons to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
But United can only work with what’s in front of them, and Carrick is the obvious choice.
Some people may argue that the club simply cannot afford to get it wrong again, but actually it’s no different to the other six men who have filled the hot-seat since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.
Chelsea just sacked a manager after three months. If Carrick is to be rewarded with a new contract, he knows it will count for little if results go against him.
Perhaps that is the greatest concern of all for United: the comparisons with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer whose spell in charge was never quite the same after he performed The Miracle in Paris and earned a three-year deal in March 2019.
History has been a little unkind to Solskjaer’s time as manager, and many at United saw the shootout defeat to Villarreal in the Europa League final in 2021 as a sliding doors moment.
But there is no avoiding the parallels or ignoring the fact that next season’s schedule is going to look very different with Champions League football for a team that were out of Europe this season and only played two domestic cup ties as well.
As fond as he is of Solskjaer, it’s in Carrick’s interests to put a little daylight between the two men.
‘A lot happened before in all sorts of different ways, whether it’s the interim getting the job, not getting the job, whether it’s having success or not having success,’ said Carrick before Saturday’s goalless draw at Sunderland. ‘So I think the past is the past.’
The big question now is: do United see Carrick as the future? We’re about to find out.