Patrick Reed tapped into a thread of conventional wisdom at the start of this most fabled of weeks when he offered an estimate. By his calculations, only 10 to 12 golfers among the field of 91 here have a legitimate chance of wearing a green jacket come Sunday evening.
That was put to Bryson DeChambeau a short time later. A man who often views the colours of life through a prism of data, not even golf’s maddest scientist could bring himself to dissect this challenge in such a way.
To DeChambeau, this manicured oasis of unseen horrors and traps and gusts is simply too complex for bold predictions. ‘I just hope I’m one of those 12,’ he said.
On Thursday, the process of finding out will commence. And, as ever, the process of watching DeChambeau will be among the most dramatic.
Is he the favourite? Most would prefer the smoking-hot form of Jon Rahm, with Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler slightly off the boil among the men who have shared the past four titles here. Many others might say Ludvig Aberg or Xander Schauffele or a lefty cutter, namely Bob MacIntyre, as a darkhorse.
But no possibility stirs intrigue quite like bonkers Bryson.
Five players to watch at the Masters
Jon Rahm – sensational form and past champion.
Bryson DeChambeau – winner on his past two starts and course will be baked and fast, like Pinehurst when he beat McIlroy in 2024.
Rory McIlroy – Liberated and relaxed but has struggled with injury and results.
Scottie Scheffler – two-time champion and the best since Tiger Woods, but his iron play has slipped in past two months
Bob MacIntyre – two top-10s in majors last year and has the left-handed advantage that previously favoured Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson here
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It has been 12 months since he bounded out of the stately clubhouse like a boxer and fist-bumped his way to the first tee for a duel with Rory McIlroy.
A few hours later he was flattened, pinned down by the occasion and wounded by McIlroy’s cold shoulder, ignored at each attempt to make conversation. Just recently, McIlroy beat him up all over again by using a documentary to accuse DeChambeau of gamesmanship.
Life has often been like that in the contradictory existence of DeChambeau. Adored by a new generation of fans for his content on YouTube, but an easy target for ridicule by many of his elite peers. He is the guy who once uprooted a signpost from his eyeline on this course and has routinely looked lost on the leaderboard.
But here’s the tantalising thing – he appears to have cracked the Augusta code by trial and error.
Gone is the man who unwisely declared this place a par-67, such was his belief in bombing over finesse. He was conditioned towards greater humility by carding only six under-par rounds from seven visits between 2016 and 2023, and the epiphany was manifested in 2024, when he was sixth. A year later he was in the final group with McIlroy before finishing fifth.
On Thursday, he arrives on the back of victories in his past two LIV tournaments and speaking his usual jargon about building his own bespoke clubs via 3D printers and the like.
As recently as Monday, he was tinkering with lead tape on one of his fairway woods, but crucially he has now learned when to throttle back. He knows where to be on the course and, more importantly, where to avoid temptation. Given the forecast for a fast and firm course that will severely punish the imprecise, the premium on such nous is higher than ever.
It might be the case that golf needs the tale of DeChambeau’s beautiful mind this week. Just as surely, even the most august overlords of Augusta would savour a refresher of his rivalry with McIlroy. On Tuesday, DeChambeau spoke of wanting to ‘beat the living you know what out of him’, which is not beyond him – his 2024 US Open was the biggest scar of McIlroy’s career, beyond wounds self-inflicted.
That McIlroy doesn’t like DeChambeau is fairly obvious. Equally true is that DeChambeau is desperate to be loved. Another collision of those worlds would be wonderful theatre and a tonic of sorts for the sport.
The consequences of Tiger Woods’s addiction issues and the behaviours of fans at the Ryder Cup have both left a bad taste, but something as wildly entertaining as a DeChambeau-McIlroy showdown would foster cleaner narratives. We could also say the same of a win for Justin Rose, three times a runner-up and the greatest victim of the McIlroy catharsis last year.
Intriguingly, one figure in the 45-year-old’s orbit opined to Daily Mail Sport on Wednesday that Rose might be adversely affected by the volume of people clamouring to his cause. He favours being under the radar. But experience is the best club in the bag around here and this is Rose’s 21st Masters. Maybe it is his year.
Or possibly it will side with McIlroy, freed from the burdens of his personal history at Augusta. His state of relaxation this week would indicate his biggest vulnerability – his thoughts – has been checked.
But his form has been patchy since a back injury last month, which is the same instinct we hold against a Scheffler hat-trick.
After taking some time off for the birth of his second son recently, he has been inactive and the reliability of his iron play, so key to setting up the right putts on a course that values approach play more than any other, has been curiously flaky since February. However, anyone who uses that evidence to confidently bet against him ought to be banned from heavy machinery for life.
That Schauffele has returned to prominence after injury makes for fascinating possibilities, ditto the youthful gifts of Aberg. Aged only 26, he has been second and seventh here, but there are recent questions about his ability to close on a Sunday.
The smartest money seems to reside with Rahm. Uncertainty around his Ryder Cup future is a nonsensical situation he has brought on himself, but Rahm thrives on anger and his results this year are sublime – 2-2-1-2-5 in five starts on LIV.
The 2023 champion spoke in great detail earlier this week about the course, itemising to the yard where you need to be and when. That can be a niche topic to the casual viewer, but it is utterly essential to success at Augusta and only learned over time with great patience.
Does the DeChambeau of 2026 have those traits? That is arguably the most interesting subplot of the next four days.
MastersRory McIlroy